Outlook2020:howtogettheRMBexchangerate?

2020-03-09 11:17:47作者:admin来源:未知

  Outlook 2020: how to get the RMB exchange rate? For 2020, the RMB exchange rate is concerned, it is to get rid of "demons" of the year.RMB most compelling moment is undoubtedly the last year in August: first onshore, offshore renminbi against the US dollar spot exchange rate both "broken 7", after the central parity of RMB against the US dollar "break 7" and the highest since April 2008 the minimum value, the offshore renminbi case occurred in a single day up over 1200 basis points within a few days after the "broken 7", 6 return.Section 9.After the RMB exchange rate "broken 7" and "return 6", the market is expected to remain stable, businesses and institutions to exchange rate fluctuations have a clear understanding of a comprehensive, rather than holding a kind of panic pegged exchange rate movements to bet unilateral appreciation or depreciation, bid farewell to the idea of herding and speculative "risk neutral" concept is to make China even more stable foreign exchange market.Outside "broken 7" 2020 Keywords What the RMB exchange rate?On the one hand, depreciation narrowed.From a global point of view, the RMB against the US dollar in 2020 full-year depreciation of 1.65% depreciation compared to the previous year is greatly reduced.On the other hand, significant two-way volatility.From the inflection point of view, the spot exchange rate of RMB in 2020, the "two liters two demoted two smooth" phased trend, there are many significant turning point in the chart, the gap between the highest and lowest values over 5200 bps.Taiyuan, the bank staff being counted currency.Zhang Yunshe after "breaking 7" 2020 will be how to get the RMB exchange rate?"Whether it is the devaluation of broken 7 or appreciation back 6, the yuan will continue in 2020. In recent years, two-way volatility of the situation, which is a normal performance, the RMB exchange rate will remain at a reasonable level fluctuations balanced."China Minsheng Bank chief researcher Wen-Bin told China news agency reporter.Chief macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants Securities Xie Yaxuan bluntly, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism of the market will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate has long been out the past "rigid" two-way volatility is the norm in the future will be more "flexible" than it is now.The trend of the RMB exchange rate two-way volatility will run through 2020, and that this years performance can changed after two consecutive years Zoubian situation it?BOCI macro research team believes that the RMB exchange rate was generally stronger two-way volatility.From the capital to see the expected foreign capital will continue to flow to China, the capital account surplus is expected to continue, and to play a supporting role in the RMB exchange rate.Deutsche Bank report predicts that reason optimistic about the appreciation of the renminbi is Chinas trade and current account surpluses are rising, foreign direct investment continued to grow, while portfolio inflows increased significantly with the emergence of open capital markets, and this trend is expected to continue in 2020 continued.Wuhan University doctoral tutor, Chinas State Administration of Foreign Exchange former spokesman Guan Tao said that looking into 2020, the RMB exchange rate favorable factors have increased.First Sino-US trade friction has been two years, the impact on financial markets tend to diminish, especially in the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreements, market confidence has been partially repaired.Second, Chinas economic growth remained at a high global level and in the global context of negative interest rates, asset expansion, global capital optimistic about China, foreign investors continued holdings of domestic financial assets.Third, the future of the US economy downward pressure, the Feds monetary policy easing back, are increasing the risk of a weaker US dollar index.At the same time, Chinas economic fundamentals are strong toughness and continued to force a counter-cyclical foreign exchange management policy, and prevent a substantial devaluation of the unilateral formation of expectations.However, chief economist at China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute said Tan Yaling is given a different view: the RMB exchange rate is still in the channel technical devaluation cycle.From the long-cycle perspective, the depreciation of the interval has not been fully repaired, but also to adjust the technology cycle continues."The next bilateral exchange rate fluctuations will present, in order to stabilize the main trend of depreciation of bias.The implementation of prudent macroeconomic management when necessary "after Chinas central bank governor Yi Gang said the author, the next stage, Chinas central bank will continue to promote market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism reform, maintaining exchange rate flexibility, and the emergence of pro-cyclical signs in the market, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

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